Plotting policy paths for Europe and the US

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets.

View in Browser Sign up for Reuters newsletters Morning Bid Europe A look at the day ahead in European and global markets By Kevin Buckland, Asia Markets Correspondent Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more European market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com. Editor's note: Please take 5 minutes this morning to participate in our reader survey. We would appreciate your feedback on the newsletter! It's a volatile time for central bank watchers, when comments from one person can flip the script in a moment.   Of course, the individual responsible for the latest twist is a closely followed Fed governor and vice chair nominee, Philip Jefferson, but still, his comments led bets on the next Fed policy move on June 14 to retreat from a 70% chance for a quarter-point increase to just 38% at latest check.   Jefferson said he favoured "skipping" a rate hike at the upcoming meeting and that term has started to displace "pause" among Fed officials. Some Fed watchers believe this conveys a slightly more hawkish nuance. Today's Market News German inflation drops to lowest level in more than a year SNB defends raising rates, says not to blame for Credit Suisse failure The meat magnate who pushed Putin's agenda in Germany European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters building is seen in Frankfurt, Germany, March 7, 2018. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo Graphics are produced by Reuters. Euro zone rates Bets for ECB tightening have been knocked back, too, most recently by weaker-than-expected CPI data from Germany and France. That puts the spotlight on the euro-area preliminary CPI reading for May, due later in the day, which now seems likely to come in below forecasts.   The euro zone's central bank will also release the summary of its meeting a month ago, when rates went up by a quarter point, and there will be fresh comments from ECB chief Christine Lagarde, who speaks at a banking conference in Hanover.   Traders currently foresee slightly more than 50 basis points of ECB tightening left before an expected peak in January. Sizing up PMIs Among a sizeable smattering of other European data in the day ahead are factory PMIs from the euro zone and many of its biggest members, including Germany and France, as well as from Britain and the United States.   In a positive prologue to those, Chinese factory activity posted a surprise swing to growth last month. Japan's reading also rebounded.   Investors seemed to be in a good mood across most of Asia, pushing stocks higher with encouragement from those more dovish Fed bets and relief at the U.S. House of Representatives passing a bill to suspend the debt ceiling - and avert a catastrophic default - with a big bipartisan majority. That's a strong indication that the bill could get through the Senate before the weekend. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: German retail sales UK house prices and mortgage lending Euro zone, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK and U.S. manufacturing PMIs Italy and euro zone unemployment rate U.S. ADP jobs report and weekly jobless claims U.S. ISM manufacturing Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Sponsors are not involved in the creation of newsletters or other Reuters news content. Morning Bid is sent every morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here.   Want to stop receiving this newsletter? Unsubscribe here. To manage which newsletters you're signed up for, click here. Reuters Terms & Conditions and Privacy Statement © 2023 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. 3 Times Square, New York, NY 10036